Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
