Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
